Fight detail
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Bout 10 · 3 rounds
highapprovedno_bet
Prediction summary
Raw model A
66.2%
Adjusted A
68.5%
Simulation A
84.9%
Market A
88.9%
Edge
-20.42%
Market gap
22.51%
Confidence + decision
Confidence score
0.92
Needs external data
false
Reasons
fighter A external history usedfighter A low stat source qualityfighter A stat override usedmarket distance warningmarket sanity blend
Betting decision
Decision tier
no_bet
Recommended EV
+1.050
fighter_A_external_history_used • fighter_A_low_stat_source_quality • fighter_A_stat_override_used • live_market_gap_too_large • live_model_sim_gap_too_large • losing_segment_edge_bucket:0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_edge:underdog|0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_profile:underdog • market_distance_warning • market_sanity_blend • system_paper_only • underdog_threshold_penalty