Fight detail
Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Bout 4 · 3 rounds
mediumapprovedno_bet
Prediction summary
Raw model A
44.0%
Adjusted A
46.0%
Simulation A
50.7%
Market A
29.4%
Edge
+16.57%
Market gap
14.59%
Confidence + decision
Confidence score
0.67
Needs external data
true
Reasons
fighter B external history usedfighter B incomplete statsfighter B low stat source qualityfighter B stat override used
Betting decision
Decision tier
no_bet
Recommended EV
+0.563
fighter_B_external_history_used • fighter_B_incomplete_stats • fighter_B_low_stat_source_quality • fighter_B_stat_override_used • losing_segment_edge_bucket:0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_edge:underdog|0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_profile:underdog • needs_external_data • system_paper_only • underdog_threshold_penalty