Fight detail
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Bout 4 · 3 rounds
mediumapprovedno_bet
Prediction summary
Raw model A
71.8%
Adjusted A
66.3%
Simulation A
90.9%
Market A
85.2%
Edge
-18.87%
Market gap
13.89%
Confidence + decision
Confidence score
0.75
Needs external data
true
Reasons
fighter A external history usedfighter A incomplete stats
Betting decision
Decision tier
no_bet
Recommended EV
+0.768
fighter_A_external_history_used • fighter_A_incomplete_stats • live_model_sim_gap_too_large • losing_segment_edge_bucket:0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_edge:underdog|0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_profile:underdog • needs_external_data • system_paper_only • underdog_threshold_penalty