Fight detail
Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Bout 2 · 3 rounds
highapprovedno_bet
Prediction summary
Raw model A
61.8%
Adjusted A
58.7%
Simulation A
77.1%
Market A
41.3%
Edge
+17.34%
Market gap
21.18%
Confidence + decision
Confidence score
1.00
Needs external data
false
Reasons
market distance warningmarket sanity blend
Betting decision
Decision tier
no_bet
Recommended EV
+0.467
live_market_gap_too_large • live_model_sim_gap_too_large • losing_segment_edge_bucket:0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_edge:underdog|0.15_plus • losing_segment_side_profile:underdog • market_distance_warning • market_sanity_blend • system_paper_only • underdog_threshold_penalty